Backing winners when the going is heavy can be a nightmare with some winter meetings turning out to be a punter’s graveyard but if you know what to look for then you can find winners at long odds during this difficult winter period.
Form acquired in firm and dead going is not necessarily a good guide to a horse’s chances in wet ground. It is however an indication of fitness therefore we cannot dismiss such horses with reasonable form on decent tracks when they face a change of going because some horses handle most types of going. We cannot rule out horses with poor form either especially if their recent racing has been in going which is not their preferred type. This becomes a balancing act, one which can frustrate form students who having weighed up the pros and cons of each horse’s chances will watch in despair as an unbacked longshot with absolutely no form in bad ground romps home.
It is important to put things into perspective. A 20/1 winner means you only need to get one winner in every 20 bets yet some people will try a system once and when it loses complain that the system does not work. If you give up too easily you run the risk of missing out on winners that would have recouped your previous losses had you stuck with the system.
Here are some systems that you may like to try;
The Beaten favourites last time out in heavy going system. You can also forgive a horse for failing in bad ground. There are so many types of heavy going such as puggy ground where the mud had dried therefore making the ground sticky which many horses struggle on or a loose heavy going where the horses are getting through it but some cannot handle the shifty nature of the going.
Horses on a seven-day back-up are worth considering in heavy going because current fitness is all important and a horse that finishes out of the money recently cannot be discounted because heavy tracks are notorious for producing form reversals. In the event that there are several horses in the same race on a 7-day back-up then the one that has won the most races in heavy going has to be preferred.
Another strategy is to back horses that won their last race in heavy going. The reason this often works is because any horse that wins in testing conditions is obviously very fit and fit horses can overcome a lot of negative factors.